Project Identity
Client: European Commission | Year: 2008
TRANSVisions: Report on transport scenarios with a 20- and 40-year horizon

TRANSVisions: Report on transport scenarios with a 20- and 40-year horizon

TRANSVisions provided the technical support to a debate on transport scenarios with a 20- and 40- year horizon, inter alia, by collecting and analysing information on transport long-term scenario forecasting, developing long-term transport scenarios, including modelling work and case studies, and finally by proposing long-term objectives for the European transport policies.

The main objective of TRANSVisions was to provide technical support to a debate on transport scenarios with a 20- and 40- year horizon, inter alia, by collecting and analysing information on transport long-term scenario forecasting, developing long-term transport scenarios, including modelling work and case studies, and finally by proposing long-term objectives for the European transport policies. More specifically, an important aspect of the study was to analyse different transport policy options to obtain reductions of the transport sector’s CO2 emissions by arbitrarily set targets of 10 % in 2020 and 50 % in 2050, compared to 2005.

In order to achieve the targets set within this study, a comprehensive discussion of the drivers related to transport has been carried out, resulting in a subdivision of the drivers in question into:

  • External drivers: population, economic development, energy, technology development and social change.
  • Internal drivers: infrastructure, vehicles and fuel development and transport impact on environment and society.
  • Policy drivers.

Furthermore, within this study a number of different exploratory scenarios for years 2030 and 2050 have been formulated based on identified drivers. Scenarios were formulated as different paths towards a post carbon society. These scenarios have been named: “Move Alone” (Individualistic transport, technology, supply management and market spontaneous self-organisation); “Move Together” (pricing and modal shift, land planning, emphasis on cohesion); “Move Less” (behavioural policies and regulation, lifestyle changes, priority to local production); and “Stop Moving” (society initially puts a strong emphasis upon technology, but when breakthroughs do not take place it falls back on regulation and banning activities).

Consortium: Tetraplan A/S (DK), BMT Transport Solutions (DE), DTU-Transport, Department of Transport, Technical University of Denmark (DK), Institute for Regional Research, Christian Albrechts University (DE), Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds (UK), ISIS, Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems (IT), Mcrit Srl (ES), Rapidis (DK), Systema S.A. (GR)